Navigating Market Meltdowns With The Index Trend Model
Index Trend Model Weekly Readings - 14/2/25 to the Trump Tariff Rug Pull 4/4/25
A quick note on styles. The method below is connected to my active stock portfolio. I am diversified by methods. My pension is drip fed monthly and the ITM along with big picture technicals I monitor also play a part in when I up my monthly payments for that method. I don't overthink this and obviously it is trading at odds with the active stock portfolios. This is diversification my investment methods.
At Trading Bases I link my market exposure to the ITM so as the market unwinds and the ITM falls my market exposure also falls inline with the heat limitations. When the markets goes into liquidation and correlations go to 1, being light is going to be a very good place to be. Don't get me wrong, closing trades as they hit exit signals over the last 8 weeks or so after I've been riding those trends for well over a year now doesn't feel great but that's compounding in action. Last week was a difficult week for me but the compounded closed balance keeps rising even though the market took back some nice unrealised profit. The key for me is never second guess the system exit. It's easy to buy back in on a new entry signal when and where they setup again. The reason investors stay with trading bases is because we outperform in the worst possible market environments because we have a plan in place before the black swan comes around and we don't second guess these things. Risk management first. Returns will follow.
At Trading Bases I link my market exposure to the ITM so as the market unwinds and the ITM falls my market exposure also falls inline with the heat limitations. When the markets goes into liquidation and correlations go to 1, being light is going to be a very good place to be. Don't get me wrong, closing trades as they hit exit signals over the last 8 weeks or so after I've been riding those trends for well over a year now doesn't feel great but that's compounding in action. Last week was a difficult week for me but the compounded closed balance keeps rising even though the market took back some nice unrealised profit. The key for me is never second guess the system exit. It's easy to buy back in on a new entry signal when and where they setup again. The reason investors stay with trading bases is because we outperform in the worst possible market environments because we have a plan in place before the black swan comes around and we don't second guess these things. Risk management first. Returns will follow.
|
|
S&P500 First Area Of Interest
DJI First Area Of Interest
