The Index Trend Model calculates how bullish or bearish the markets are based on the trend of two moving averages and the big picture price action.
Phases
Bullish - Retrace (Looking to add longs)
Bullish - Extended (Trail mode on longs to lock in swing trade gains)
Bearish - Retrace (Looking to add shorts)
Bearish - Extended (Trail mode on shorts to lock in swing trade gains)
Mixed - Rangebound
Obviously you never know how far a retrace will pull back or how extended a market will get but I use 2 standard deviations on a monthly average.
At some point a phase will change from bullish to bearish and vice versa.
This is when buying the dip in a bull market or selling the rally in a bear market fails.
Market Cycles. Its good to know where you are in the bullish or bearish market cycle. Obviously the best gains are made by entering early in the bull market cycle on the long side.
Phases
Bullish - Retrace (Looking to add longs)
Bullish - Extended (Trail mode on longs to lock in swing trade gains)
Bearish - Retrace (Looking to add shorts)
Bearish - Extended (Trail mode on shorts to lock in swing trade gains)
Mixed - Rangebound
Obviously you never know how far a retrace will pull back or how extended a market will get but I use 2 standard deviations on a monthly average.
At some point a phase will change from bullish to bearish and vice versa.
This is when buying the dip in a bull market or selling the rally in a bear market fails.
Market Cycles. Its good to know where you are in the bullish or bearish market cycle. Obviously the best gains are made by entering early in the bull market cycle on the long side.
Index Trend Model - 4-11-16
Phase = Bullish
Members area has full update
Phase = Bullish
Members area has full update
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Last Updated 16-8-16
Phase = Bullish
Members area has full update
Phase = Bullish
Members area has full update
Last Updated 28-7-16
Phase = Bullish
Members area has full update
Phase = Bullish
Members area has full update
Last Updated 2-5-16
Phase = Bearish Retrace to two standard deviations moving above the falling 5MMA's on most markets.
Still looking like a normal retrace to mean resistance. Swing trades have been working well but small caps are very choppy.
I'm very interested in the markets next retrace as a higher low would be a first indication the bottom could be in. Looking to see if the markets can digest this last move rather than sell down hard again.
Phase = Bearish Retrace to two standard deviations moving above the falling 5MMA's on most markets.
Still looking like a normal retrace to mean resistance. Swing trades have been working well but small caps are very choppy.
I'm very interested in the markets next retrace as a higher low would be a first indication the bottom could be in. Looking to see if the markets can digest this last move rather than sell down hard again.
Below is a slideshow of the index trend model readings leading up to the black Monday crash.